Limited supply and increased oil volumes lead to a surge in rates
Throughout April, the tanker market strengthened, driven by a reduced supply of compliant vessels, new sanctions, and an increase in global oil production.
The decrease in the number of compliant tankers—those able to trade freely without the risk of sanctions—has increasingly impacted earnings. Despite the traditionally lower demand in spring, spot rates for Suezmax and Aframax vessels rose by 20 to 30% compared to the latter half of 2024. This was due to both reduced availability and sustained cargo activity.
Aframax Rates Boosted by Canadian Crude Exports
Canadian crude exports have been significantly redirected to Europe following the introduction of new U.S. tariffs, which has greatly boosted demand for Aframax vessels. Over 75% of these eastbound shipments were handled by Aframax tonnage, leading to a sharp increase in spot earnings, with Aframax rates in the North Sea rising by nearly 24% in one week to almost 55,000 USD per day. A limited tonnage list in the Mediterranean and Northwestern Europe also supported the segment.
OPEC+ Production Increase Disrupts the Tanker Market
Simultaneously, OPEC+ unexpectedly announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, significantly surpassing the market's initial expectations. This, combined with the reopening of the Black Sea oil terminal in Kazakhstan, has introduced more volumes to the global seaborne crude oil market, thereby providing additional employment opportunities for tankers.
By the end of the month, modern Suezmax vessels equipped with scrubbers were earning approximately 65,000 USD per day, reaching the highest levels of the year, while Aframax rates averaged in the low 50,000 USD range. The new U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports also decreased vessel availability, further strengthening market conditions.
Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys Securities, OPEC