OPEC+ plans to boost production
As highlighted in last week's update, OPEC+ has announced its plan to lift the production cuts of 2.2 mbpd that were implemented in November 2023 to stabilize oil prices. Starting in April, production will increase by 138,000 barrels per day, with an additional rise of 400,000 barrels per day expected in December. Clarksons estimates that this will boost ton-mile demand by 2% to 2.5%, thereby invigorating the tanker market.
Trump's Tariffs – and Their Impact on Trade
On March 3, the United States implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, imposing a 10% tax on Canadian energy exports and a 25% tax on other imports. If Canadian and Mexican crude oil is redirected to other markets instead of being sent to the United States, the ton-mile demand could rise by 2% to 2.5%, according to Clarksons. Recent data already indicates a shift, with a record 42% of Canada's total crude exports now heading to East Asia, thereby increasing shipping distances and the demand for tankers.
Is a truce between Russia and Ukraine in progress?
The Trump administration is reportedly considering a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Following the implementation of G7 sanctions after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ton-mile demand increased by 6% as Russian crude flows shifted towards India and China, while Europe sourced oil from more distant regions. A potential return to pre-war trade routes poses a risk of decreased demand. However, since much of the Russian crude is currently transported by aging and sanctioned vessels from the shadow fleet, the demand for traditional tankers is not expected to be significantly affected. VLCCs and Suezmax tankers might experience limited impact or even a slight benefit, whereas product tankers could face a more substantial risk of decline.
Tanker demand may soon outstrip supply
With minimal fleet growth expected in the tanker market next year, especially for crude oil tankers, we foresee a significant potential for a favorable imbalance between supply and demand. These geopolitical and market developments are likely to lead to an increase in tanker demand in the upcoming period.
Source: Clarksons