A modest 2025 anticipated due to ongoing U.S. export constraints
The LPG markets might remain weak in 2025, particularly during the first six months of the year. A 3.6% increase in the LPG carrier fleet (excluding VLECs) is expected to surpass the combined growth of LPG and ammonia trade in ton-miles, which is projected at 1.8% this year. Demand growth is mainly constrained by the LPG export capacity limitations in the United States, although these may begin to ease in the latter half of 2025.
Positive Long-Term Outlook – Trade in 2026 Expected to Grow
However, the year 2026 is expected to be more favorable for the LPG carrier markets, with a projected 7.9% growth in the combined trade of LPG and ammonia in ton-miles, driven by the expansion of LPG export terminals in the United States and the Middle East. The capacity of the LPG carrier fleet (excluding VLECs) could increase by 6.8%. Asian imports are anticipated to grow by 8% in 2026, although uncertainty regarding trade tensions between the United States and China remains. Thus, while short-term prospects are moderate, 2026 appears to be a promising year.
Source: Clarksons Research and Fearnleys Research