As negotiations with Iran progress, the tanker market stands to benefit
Ongoing discussions between the United States and Iran have raised the possibility of easing sanctions on Iranian crude oil. Regardless of the outcome, the tanker market is well-positioned to benefit. As highlighted by Alexander Saverys, CEO of the Belgian group CMB: "In fact, the situation with Iran, in our view, can only be positive for the tanker sector."
Two favorable outcomes – in summary:
If the sanctions remain in place, oil will continue to be shipped from alternative regions such as the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East, thereby supporting long-distance transport demand and increasing ton-miles, especially for large crude carriers.
If the sanctions are lifted, Iranian crude oil will re-enter the regular market and be transported by compliant tankers (white fleet). This could lead to an increased scrapping of older vessels from the shadow fleet, thereby reducing supply and supporting rates.
Simultaneously, China's increasing interest in acquiring older tankers – potentially for transporting Iranian oil – is adding upward pressure on the second-hand market.
With a limited supply of new tankers and stable vessel values, both scenarios support a positive outlook for the crude carrier segment.
Source : Shippingwatch