Closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains unlikely
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran was established on June 24, providing temporary stabilization to shipping markets. War-risk premiums for voyages through the Persian Gulf eased slightly, and crude tanker rates dropped by 10–20% to pre-conflict levels. However, underlying volatility remains elevated.
It should be noted that on June 22, Iran’s parliament passed a symbolic motion supporting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil flows. However, experts consider this scenario unlikely considering Iran’s substantial dependence on crude exports transiting the strait. Current operational risks in the area are chiefly related to GPS jamming, with over 900 vessels having reported AIS interference. A tanker collision in the Gulf of Oman further highlighted the elevated level of operational risk in the region.
Despite these challenges, maritime traffic remains uninterrupted, with major shipping companies resuming port calls in Haifa as of June 27. Analysts caution, however, that any renewed escalation could quickly undermine this stabilization.
Sources: FreightWaves, Hellenic Shipping News, Port Technology & Reuters.