Near-term impact: Longer shipping routes and diversified trade flows
Recent forecasts from OPEC+ and Trafigura indicate that India’s oil demand growth is expected to surpass China’s as early as 2025, driven by rapid industrialization, urbanization, and expanding vehicle ownership.
In the near term, this realignment is set to boost long-haul crude shipments from the US, Middle East, and West Africa to India, driving tonne-mile demand for tankers and supporting the resilience of freight rates.
Long-term outlook: India anchors the global energy trade
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is expected to account for more than one-third of global oil demand growth by 2030, increasing its consumption by nearly 1.2 million barrels per day. As China’s demand plateaus over the next 3 to 5 years, this structural shift positions India at the center of global energy trade, reinforcing South Asia’s expanding role in tanker utilization and long-term market stability.
Sources: IEA, OPEC, and Trafigura