Tariff increases are anticipated as more ships are blacklisted
The United States has blacklisted 13 additional tankers, including five VLCCs, while the EU has added 65 more tankers to its list, further restricting sanctioned crude exports. According to Fearnley Securities, these sanctions targeting ghost fleet vessels are expected to increase demand for conventional ships.
Significant decline in Iranian exports
With over 10% of VLCCs and Suezmaxes now blacklisted, and nearly 20% of the Aframax/LR2 fleet affected, crude and product exports from Iran and Russia are becoming increasingly complicated. Iranian oil exports to China have already decreased by 400,000 barrels per day this year, highlighting the impact of these measures.
Shortage of compliant ships – few replacements expected
Fearnley estimates that to replace one million barrels per day of crude imports in China with alternative sources, a substantial number of tankers would be required. However, with only a few deliveries expected in 2025, they foresee a shortage of compliant tankers in the future. The reduced fleet supply could drive up rates in the coming weeks, thereby enhancing the optimistic outlook for the tanker market.
Source: Tradewinds and Fearnleys Securities