The market strengthens as sanctions take effect
We are now witnessing the positive effects of a market trend we've been observing for some time: the reduction in the number of compliant tankers. As sanctions continue to split the global fleet into two categories—compliant and non-compliant (including both ghost ships and sanctioned vessels)—the number of ships available for unrestricted trade is decreasing. This is beginning to be reflected in the profits.
Profits are rising significantly, defying the typically low spring demand
The Suezmax and Aframax segments are leading the way, with spot rates significantly exceeding recent averages. Many ships in these categories are now earning 20 to 30% more than in the second half of 2024. This is noteworthy given the typically lower demand seen in spring. These medium-sized tankers particularly benefit from increased cargo volumes and their flexibility in regional trades—especially as fewer compliant ships are available to meet the growing demand.
Although short-term fluctuations may still occur due to temporal factors or local imbalances, it is clear that the limitation of the compliant fleet is creating favorable market conditions.
Source: Tradewinds