Industry experts foresee positive prospects with the influx of more oil into the market
Industry experts currently highlight an optimistic outlook for the tanker market. With the anticipated arrival of more oil on the market, a tight balance of ships due to sanctions, and an aging fleet, these conditions suggest potential for growth in the future—topics we have covered in previous editions of the Weekly.
This week, leading analysts from Clarkson Research and Fearnleys have shared their insights, emphasizing the recurring themes that are increasingly shaping market sentiment. "The strengthening of freight fundamentals, the rise in OPEC+ production, and the tightening of sanctions are all altering the sentiment," noted Frode Mørkedal, Even Kolsgaard, and Bendik Folden Nyttingnes in a joint market update.
Strong Demand Anticipated – Tightening of Tanker Supply
The anticipated increase in OPEC+ production by 2.2 million barrels per day from April to June is expected to significantly boost the volume of crude transported by sea, equivalent to about 70 Suezmax cargoes. Meanwhile, the global order book for tankers remains at historically low levels, and much of the existing fleet is aging, suggesting limited fleet growth and an increasing likelihood of scrapping over time.
The shadow fleet feels the impact of increasingly stringent sanctions
At the same time, regulatory pressure on the operations of the shadow fleet continues to intensify, as new rounds of sanctions from Western governments further limit access for non-compliant tonnage. This not only redirects more trade towards the main fleet but also supports a stronger rate environment in the medium term.
Although the spot market may remain volatile in the short term, key market observers increasingly acknowledge that the strategic outlook for the tanker segment is positive.
Source: Fearnleys Securities, Clarksons Securities, and Tradewinds.