How will the series of U.S. tariffs affect the maritime transport market?
The United States has introduced a new series of tariffs aimed at reshaping global trade flows. A standard duty of 10% will be imposed on all imports, with higher rates targeting countries with the most significant trade imbalances—specifically, China at 34%, the EU at 20%, and Japan at 24%.
Although the initial reaction suggests pressure on container shipping and car carriers, the maritime market as a whole remains relatively shielded for now. However, any escalation in retaliatory measures could alter the outlook in other segments.
Tanker ships: no direct impact, cascading positive effects
Petroleum and refined products have been excluded from the new tariff regime, thereby shielding tanker trade from a direct impact. In fact, the tanker markets have already observed initial benefits, as shifting trade flows—particularly from Canada and Mexico—are increasing ton-miles, with suppliers looking beyond traditional American pipeline routes towards maritime exports to Europe and Asia.
Although there is a broader concern that a prolonged trade war could slow down global economic activity and, consequently, reduce oil demand, industry voices remain cautiously optimistic. Harry Vafias, the head of several U.S.-listed shipping companies, told TradeWinds: "The tariffs will initially have a negative impact, but will eventually turn positive."
Car Carriers: Tariffs Weigh on Vehicle Maritime Trade
The implementation of a 25% tariff on all foreign-built automobiles, effective immediately, presents a clear challenge for the car carrier market. A similar 25% tariff on auto parts will be introduced on May 3. Although vehicles manufactured in China make up a small portion of overall U.S. imports, over 4 million vehicles were imported by sea to the United States in 2024. These new trade barriers could put pressure on volumes in the car carrier segment. However, it is important to note that demand patterns may shift over time as manufacturers and consumers adjust to the new trade landscape.
Gas Carriers: Limited Direct Exposure, but Retaliation Risk Looms
The gas transport segments, particularly LNG and LPG, are not directly targeted by the new U.S. tariffs. However, China's immediate announcement of retaliatory measures, including new tariffs on U.S. LPG imports, has introduced uncertainty. Initial market reactions have shown a decline in freight offers and a narrowing of the arbitrage window. As one of the world's largest exporters of LNG and LPG, the U.S. market remains vulnerable to further retaliatory actions, which could affect trade patterns and freight demand in the short term.
Source: Clarksons, Fearnleys Securities, and TradeWinds