U.S. sanctions on Iran lead to an additional increase in demand
According to analysts from Clarksons and Braemar, spot rates for the largest oil tankers could rise to as much as $80,000 per day as President Donald Trump's administration intensifies sanctions on Iranian oil exports. This crackdown is expected to lead to an increased shift of crude shipments to conventional tanker fleets, thereby boosting the demand for compliant vessels.
Clarksons estimates that replacing Iranian exports with barrels from Middle Eastern producers might require up to 38 additional VLCCs. Meanwhile, Hunter Group anticipates a need for 51 ships if 1.7 million barrels are redirected daily.
TradeWinds Forecast: The recovery could extend until 2027
According to this week's information from TradeWinds, Henry Curra of Braemar suggests that the sanctions might also encourage more VLCCs to transport crude from the Atlantic to India, thereby decreasing competition for Suezmax cargoes. If these shifts persist, the recovery could extend until 2027.
For comparison, a VLCC can carry a volume equivalent to that of two Suezmax vessels.
Source: Tradewinds, Clarksons and Braemar