Hostilities are complicating operations, as June rates surged before stabilizing
June was marked by a sharp escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, beginning with Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones targeting major Israeli cities.
The United States then directly intervened in the conflict, conducting strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Tensions peaked when the Iranian parliament voted on a measure paving the way for a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz — although such a scenario remains unlikely.
Attempted ceasefire, persistent risk
By late June, a temporary ceasefire was brokered by the United States, although mutual violations were reported just hours after it took effect. Signal jamming in the region has disrupted tracking of over 1,000 commercial vessels, adding uncertainty and logistical complexity to regional trade routes.
Impacts on maritime transport: longer routes, increased insurance premiums
The rise in geopolitical tensions has increased oil price volatility and diverted maritime flows away from the Arabian-Persian Gulf. Direct consequences include longer voyage times, higher insurance premiums, and a reduced availability of vessels. For shipowners operating in the compliant sector, this environment has led to a strong increase in freight rates, particularly in the tanker and gas segments. If the conflict continues, the rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and the increased demand in ton-miles could sustain high earnings through the third quarter. However, recent signs of easing tensions suggest that this market surge may be short-lived, as anticipated two weeks ago.